A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
