Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
